经济“新常态”下中国经济转型升级评价体系的构建及区域比较.doc

PAGE PAGE 37 经济“新常态”下中国经济转型升级评价体系的构建及区域比较 摘要：我国经济进入“新常态”，经济发展速度开始换档回落，国民经济正发生深刻变化，经济转型升级是我国经济发展的必然要求。本文从经济“新常态”的内涵以及我国经济转型升级的要求出发，构建相关的综合评价指标体系。根据目前我国经济发展的现状、存在的问题，以及相关理论的研究成果，结合实际的可操作性，本文共选取了18个评价指标，涵盖我国经济结构调整优化、经济发展动力优化、生态文明建设三个层面。利用2013年我国省际面板数据，运用因子分析法，对30个省区单位（未含西藏、香港、澳门、台湾）的经济转型升级能力进行了综合分析，研究发现当前我国经济转型升级状况在区域间很不平衡。最后结合研究结论与实际情况提出相应的政策建议。 关键词：新常态；转型升级；评价体系；因子分析；聚类分析 The Construction of Chinas economic transformation and upgrading evaluation system and regions comparative during the new normal Abstract: Our economy has enter the new normal, economic growth rate began to shift to fall, the national economy is undergoing a profound change, economic transformation and upgrading is an inevitable requirement of economic development. In this paper, after catch on the definition of new normal and economic transformation and upgrading, then building a comprehensive index system. According to the current situation of Chinas economic development, the existing problems, the relating research and the actual operability, eighteen index were selected, covering the adjustment of the economic structure optimization, the optimization of dynamic economic development, the ecological civilization construction. The paper Use the inter-provincial panel data in 2013 and selecting the factor analysis to evaluate the economic transformation and upgrading capacity of the 30 provinces (excluding Tibet, Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan) to evaluate the economic transformation and upgrading capacity, which indicates that Chinese economic transformation and upgrading is out-off-balance. Finally, the recommendations would making according to the conclusions and actual situation. Keywords: New Normal; Transformation and Upgrading; index system; Factor Analysis; Cluster Analysis; 一、绪论 （一）研究背景 经济“新常态”的首次提出是2014年5月习近平总书记在河南省视察的时候。他指出中国经济呈现出新常态的主要特点为：“经济从高速增长转向中高速增长”。“经济结构不断优化升级，第三产业、消费需求逐步成为主体”，“从投资驱动和要素驱动向创新驱动”。 “新常态”的提出，深刻地揭示了我国经济发展的新变化，对于全面深化经济体制改革，引领中国经济转型升级具有十分重要的意义。“新常态”下经济质量要求更高，经济结构要求更优，创新