上市公司财务风险识别研究——基于制造业上市公司的实证研究.docVIP

PAGE PAGE 42 上市公司财务风险识别研究 ——基于制造业上市公司的实证研究 摘要： 20世纪后期，全球制造业飞速发展，竞争力逐步增强。与此同时，在经营的过程中产生了许多不确定的经营财务风险因素，成为制约阻碍制造业发展的关键力量，很有可能导致制造业生产发展停滞，陷入危机走向财务破产的结局。 论文根据制造业上市公司财务风险识别的重要程度，对制造业企业相关的财务风险进行识别与分析，利用风险的定量识别因素使风险识别更具代表性和效率性。利用了两种主要的模型方法：因子分析法与Logistic二元回归分析法对公司的财务风险进行有效识别与预防。最终，我们利用2013-2015年样本公司的数据对公司财务风险进行实证分析研究，检验其识别的准确度。由最终的结果可看出，通过三年数据的验证，两种方法的结合很好地识别预测了样本公司地财务风险，具备较高地预测准确率。最终得出结论，由因子分析和logistic模型得出的制造业企业财务风险具有很好的定量识别能力，拥有很强的现实指导意义。此模型的运用，可是得制造企业的决策者和投资者在决策和投资的过程中更具判断准确度，有效识别、规避风险。 关键词：财务风险；制造业上市公司；因子分析法；Logistic 回归 Listed company financial risk identification research ——Empirical research based on Manufacture Industry Listed Companies Abstract: In the late twentieth?Century, with the rapid development of the global manufacturing industry,?competitiveness gradually increased. At the same time, the process of operation has many uncertain business financial risk factors, becoming obstacle to manufacturing industry in the development of key power, and this is likely to lead to manufacturing production stagnation and crisis to the outcome of financial bankruptcy. According to the importance of financial risk identification of manufacturing listed companies of manufacturing industry enterprise financial risk identification and analysis, to make risk identification more representative and efficiency of using quantitative risk identification factors. Two main models are used: factor analysis and Logistic two regression analysis to identify and prevent the companys financial risk effectively. Finally, we use the 2013-2015 Sample Firmss data to empirical analysis of the companys financial risk, to test the accuracy of its identification. It can be seen from the final results, through three years of data validation, the combination of the two methods to identify a good prediction of the financial risks of the Sample Firms, with higher prediction accuracy. Finally come to the conclusion that the mathematical model of the combination of factor analysis and logistic two reg