人民币汇率变动对中国茶叶出口价格的传递效应.docVIP

PAGE PAGE 22 人民币汇率变动对中国茶叶出口价格的传递效应 摘要：我国作为世界第一大茶叶消费国和第二大茶叶出口国，茶叶的出口在我国农产品出口中占有者举足轻重的地位。汇率改革以来，人民币逐渐升值，这必将对我国的茶叶出口产生影响。现有的汇率变动对出口的研究大多集中在宏观的影响分析或者工业制品这一方面，很少有涉及到对农产品的研究，专门针对茶叶的更不多见。本文以汇率变动对一般出口商品价格影响的理论分析作为基础，构建计量经济学模型，对人民币汇率变动对茶叶出口价格的影响进行分析研究，最后得出结论并给出建议。本文首先对国内外针对汇率价格传递的文献进行回顾和整理，并确定了本文的研究方向和主要研究方法。然后阐述了我国近年来茶叶贸易的特点、现状以及存在的问题、寻求问题存在的根源。本文旨在了解我国茶叶出口价格和人民币汇率波动的情况下，探寻者二者间的影响程度，并以2005年到2014年的季度数据为基础，对我国茶叶出口价格和人民币名义汇率间的相关性做描述性的回归和分析，最后得出两者间的关系并对中国茶产业的发展提出有效的建议。 关键词：汇率变动；出口价格；传递效应 The pass through effect on the change of RMB exchange rate to Chinese tea export price Abstract: As the first tea consumption and the second tea export country in the word, the tea export in our country is very important. Since the RMB exchange rate reform, China has allowed a gradual appreciation in the RMB, it would inevitably to influence the production of tea. The existing researches of the fluctuation of exchange rate made impacts on China’s export are mostly in the aspect of macro or industry, only a few studies is involved of agriculture, and few of article is involved of tea. This essay is based on the theory study for the influence of exchange rate change to the price of export. And build an econometric model tool to study the influence of exchange rate change to the export price of tea. Finally, we draw conclusions and make some suggestions. Firstly, the exchange-rate prices on literature review and organize delivery and to determine the research direction and research methods. Then it describes the characteristics of China tea trade in recent years, current situation and problems, to seek the root causes of problems. This paper aims to understand the case of Chinas tea export price and exchange rate fluctuations, the impact seekers between the two, and in 2005 and 2014, quarterly data, related to Chinas tea export price and the nominal exchange rate between RMB of doing descriptive and regression analysis, the conclusion that the relationship between them and the development of C