中国通货膨胀的因素分析与研究.docVIP

PAGE PAGE 32 中国通货膨胀的因素分析与研究 内容摘要 通货膨胀，长期以来都是经济学和金融学领域里一个炙手可热的研究问题，它存在于绝大多数国家经济发展的过程中，对国民经济以及居民的生活水平有很大影响。通货膨胀问题的产生同经济发展水平与发展阶段密切相关，其成因绝不是一成不变的，而是随着经济的发展而变化的。不同的通货膨胀发生机理必须制定不同的通货膨胀治理政策。因此，本文在归纳总结通货膨胀相关文献的基础上，采用定量分析与定性分析相结合的研究方法，对2013年到2015年我国通货膨胀的产生机制分析，并针对现阶段的发生机理提出相应的治理对策。本文首先对通货膨胀进行理论分析，随后对2013年到2015年我国的通货膨胀进行实证研究，探索其主要影响因素，最后在不影响我国经济正常增长的情况下，对现阶段的通货膨胀提出治理的相关政策建议。通过研究发现，现阶段我国通货膨胀增长率主要是由于上期的通货膨胀率变化率、工业生产者出厂价格指数变化率、当期出口总值增长率的增加，而实际利用外商直接投资金额的增加对抑制通货膨胀有一定的作用。并据此提出了治理我国现阶段通货膨胀的政策建议：始终将通货膨胀作为重要的宏观管理目标；提高生产率，促进总产出提高；加快实现经济增长方式转变，促进产业结构优化升级；打破垄断，保护中小企业稳定发展；继续利用好外商直接投资。 关键词：通货膨胀最小二乘估计政策措施 Abstract Inflation has been a hot research topic in the field of finance and economics in a long time. It exists in most countries in the process of economic development and has a significant impact on the national economy and residents living standards. The generation of inflation is closely related to the level and stage of economic development. Its causes vary in different development stages and would also be influenced by the change of economic. Inflations coming from different mechanism must be treated with different policies. Therefore, this paper summarizes researches relative with inflation, and analyzes the mechanism of Inflation in China from April 2013 to Dcember 2015, using both quantitative and qualitative method. Countermeasures are then put forward according to the inflation causing mechanism nowadays. Firstly, we analyze the inflationmachnism theoretically, then we use positive analysis to explore the main factors that have effect on inflation rate. In the end, we give proposals on policies on infaltion, under the condition that the normal growth of Chinas economy would not be disturbed. The research shows that growth rate of inflation at this stage is mainly related to the changing rate of inflation rate in last term, the changing rate of producer price index rate, and current growth rate of export value increases. Also, increasing the actual utilization of foreign d