《运营管理》课件 Operations Management：lecture 8.pptVIP

Insights from Beer Game ---BullWhip Effect 牛鞭效应 * 牛鞭效应 bullwhip effect 是指需求信息在从最终客户开始沿着供应链向零售商、分销商、制造商乃至原料供应商的传递过程中出现了逐级放大的现象，即上游节点的需求的波动程度大于下游节点需求的波动程度。 在很多公司如：宝洁、惠普、通用汽车等的供应链中都观察到了这种现象。 * 各层库存量（或订单）的变化模式 零售商 批发商 分销商 制造商 * Bullwhip effect in the US PC supply chain Annual percentage changes in demand (in $s) at three levels of the semiconductor supply chain: personal computers, semiconductors and semiconductor manufacturing equipment. * Consequences of the bullwhip effect Inefficient production or excessive inventory. Low utilization of the distribution channel. Necessity to have capacity