论银行股投资策略.pptVIP

* 良好的交易品种 流通市值大、交易活跃、行业的市值对指数贡献大且上市公司集中，提供了良好的交易流动性和追踪指数的功能 对资金量大、采取组合投资的投资者，以及增量资金来讲，具有战略意义 银行股的波动性特点也为投资者创造了交易区间 第三十一页，共三十二页。 内容总结 中国国际金融有限公司 范艳瑾。经营模式从“规模扩张”到“盈利质量”的转变。经济对银行的高度依赖造就银行粗放型规模扩张模式。经济增长过度依赖银行体系的局面引起了央行的担忧。银监会着重银行均衡发展，注重释放银行的潜在风险。政府鼓励发展直接融资，银行需适应资本市场发展寻找新的盈利机会。短期利益与长期利益的平衡。控制贷款组合风险，讲究风险调整后收益率。进行利率和流动性管理，防范利率风险。短期利益与长期利益的平衡 （续）。市盈率/每股盈利增长率 市净率/净资产收益率。国内外股权要求回报率不同: A股9-9.5% vs.香港12%。我们充分考虑了银行的增长前景，并在估值方面给予了溢价 第三十二页，共三十二页。 * * Thank you for giving me the chance to talk with you about China’s banking industry. As you may know, China’s banking sector is highly concentrated; Four big state-owned banks dominate the market. But they are saddled with NPLs, make marginal profits, and lack core competency. It would take another 2-3 years for them to streamline their operation and sharpen their competitive edge. However, smaller players, joint-equity commercial banks, will be another story. They are fast growth, profit-oriented, commercial entities in the interests of shareholders. Now they are looking for equity markets to raise capital for further expansion. We think this will offer investors new opportunities to share the growth of China’s banking industry. We believe some well-run joint-equity banks will stand out from the competition during the expansion. So, our analysis is conducted with a focus on joint-equity banks. We hope to give you a picture of the more commercialized part of China’s banking sector. * * The current banking system is the result of a serial banking reform that started in the early 1990’s. Three policy banks were established to assume policy lending capacity from the four state-owned banks in order to enable them to operate as real commercial entities. Meanwhile, competition was introduced among domestic financial institutions to speed up the overall banking reform. Joint-equity banks, incorporated by local governments or large state-owned enterprises, gradually built up their client base in regional markets. There a