巴德 宏观经济学原理（英文版·第8版）Chapter 13 Eye Ons.pptxVIP

13EYE ONSAggregate Supply andAggregate Demand What causes the business cycle and what in particular caused the 2008–2009 recession?Business Cycle TheoryThe mainstream business cycle theory is that potential GDP grows at a steady rate while aggregate demand grows at a fluctuating rate.Because the money wage rate is slow to change, if aggregate demand grows more quickly than potential GDP, real GDP increases above potential GDP and an inflationary gap emerges.The inflation rate rises and real GDP is pulled back toward potential GDP. If aggregate demand grows more slowly than potential GDP, real GDP falls below potential GDP and a recessionary gap emerges.The inflation rate slows, but the money wage rate responds very slowly to the recessionary gap and real GDP does not return to potential GDP until another increase in aggregate demand occurs.Fluctuations in investment are the main source of aggregate demand fluctuations. A recession can occur if aggregate supply decreases to bring stagflation. Also, a recession might occur because both aggregate demand and aggregate supply decrease. The 2008–2009 RecessionAt the peak in 2008, real GDP was $15.4 trillion and the price level was 99.In the second quarter of 2009, real GDP had fallen to $14.4 trillion and the price level had risen to 100.A recessionary gap appeared in 2009. The financial crisis that began in 2007 and intensified in 2008 …decreased the supply of loanable funds and investment fell. In particular, construction investment collapsed. Recession in the global economy lowered the demand for U.S. exports, so this component of aggregate demand also decreased.The decrease in aggregate demand was moderated by a large injection of spending by the U.S. government, but it did not stop aggregate demand from decreasing. We cannot account for the combination of a rise in the price level and a fall in real GDP with a decrease in aggregate demand alone.Aggregate supply must also have decreased.The rise in oil prices in 2