德国智库-为长期战争做准备：2024年俄乌有可能停火吗？（英）-2023.12-19页.pdfVIP

GermanCouncilonForeignRelations

No.6

December2023

ANALYSIS

Preparingfora

LongerWar

IsaCeasefirebetweenUkraine

andRussiapossibleby2024?

Russia’slarge-scaleinvasionofUkrainehasfailedandisnowapro-

tractedwarofattrition.Russiahasadaptedtothissituationandpre-

Dr.StefanMeisterparedforalongerwar.ThelegitimizationofthePutinsystemisin-

HeadoftheCenterforOrdercreasinglybuiltaroundthewar.AslongasUkrainehasnosecurity

andGovernanceinEasternguarantees,aceasefireisnotrealisticfromeitherside.Therefore,the

Europe,Russia,andCentalAsia

focusshouldbeonprotectingtheterritoryUkrainecontrolsanddefin-

ingtogetherwiththeWesternpartnershowsecuritycanbeprovided

andwhatvictorymeans.

–SincetheKremlinhasnointerestinaceasefireagreementonaccept-

abletermsforUkraine,theWestneedstosupportUkrainesothat

timeisnolongeronRussia’sside.Thatmeansclosingsanctionsgaps,

Dr.AndrásRáczs