基于AHP-云模型的装备工程研制风险评价研究.docx

第45卷第1期2023年2月

指挥控制与仿真

CommandControlSimulation

Vol.45No.1Feb.2023

文章编号：1673?3819(2023)01?0015?06

基于AHP?云模型的装程研制风险评价研究

（航天工程大学，北京102206)

摘要：装备工程研制阶段是把装备设计图样转化为物质实体的过程，是装备采购过程中历时最长，风险最密集的时期。通过查阅装备工程项目研制相关资料，构建了综合风险评价指标体系；采用层次分析法计算一级指标与二级指标之间的相对权重；利用云理论，构建装备工程研制阶段各类风险评估云模型，形成了标准云图；并以某型通信设备为例，对该型装备工程研制阶段综合风险水平进行了科学评估。该方法为装备采购部门和承制单位对装备工程研制阶段进行风险评价提供了新思路。

关键词：层次分析法；云模型；装备工程研制；风险评价

中图分类号：E242文献标志码：ADOI:10.3969/j.issn.1673?3819.2023.01.003Researchonriskassessmentofequipmentengineering

ZHANGJia?wendevelopmentbasedonAHP?cloud

ZHANGJia?wen

(SpaceEngineeringUniversity,Beijing102206,China)

Abstract:Theequipmentengineeringdevelopmentstageistheprocessoftransformingequipmentdesigndrawingsandcom?

battechnicalperformanceintomaterialentities,whichisthelongestandriskiestperiodintheequipmentprocurement

process.Inthispaper,byfindingrelevantliteratureonthedevelopmentofequipmentengineeringprojects,acomprehensive

riskevaluationindexsystemisconstructed,andtherelativeweightsbetweentheprimaryandsecondaryindicatorsarecalcu?

latedusingtheAHPmethod(hierarchicalanalysis).Usingcloudcomputingtheory,theevaluationcloudmodelofvarious

typesofrisksinthedevelopmentstageofequipmentengineeringisconstructed,andastandardclouddiagramisformed.

Takingatypeofcommunicationequipmentasanexample,thecomprehensiveriskisscientificallyassessed,andthelevelof

thistypeofcommunicationequipmentisscientificallyassessedandfinallyjudgedasmediumrisk.TheAHP?cloudmodele?

valuationmethodinthispaperprovidesnewideasforequipmentprocurementdepartmentsandcontractmanufacturingunitsto

evaluatetherisksintheequipmentengineeringdevelopmentphase.

Keywords:AHPmethod;cloudmodel;equipmentengineeringdevelopment;riskassessment

装备工程研制风险评价是一个由众多因素和环节组成的复杂系统，在评价指标体系中，既有定量指标又有定性指标，且选取的指标多层次、多角度