ch05精品课件精品课件.ppt

CHAPTER5OUTLINE5.1 DescribingRisk5.2 PreferencesTowardRisk5.3 ReducingRisk5.4 TheDemandforRiskyAssets5.5 BehavioralEconomics

UncertaintyandConsumerBehaviorInordertocomparetheriskinessofalternativechoices,weneedtoquantifyrisk.Wewillexaminepeople’spreferencestowardrisk.Wewillseehowpeoplecansometimesreduceoreliminaterisk.

Insomesituations,peoplemustchoosetheamountofrisktheywishtobear.Inthefinalsectionofthischapter,weofferanoverviewoftheflourishingfieldofbehavioraleconomics.Toexaminethewaysthatpeoplecancompareandchooseamongriskyalternatives,wetakethefollowingsteps:

DESCRIBINGRISK5.1Probability● probabilityLikelihoodthatagivenoutcomewilloccur.Subjectiveprobabilityistheperceptionthatanoutcomewilloccur.● expectedvalueProbability-weightedaverageofthepayoffsassociatedwithallpossibleoutcomes.ExpectedValue● payoffValueassociatedwithapossibleoutcome.Theexpectedvaluemeasuresthecentraltendency—thepayofforvaluethatwewouldexpectonaverage.Expectedvalue=Pr(success)($40/share)+Pr(failure)($20/share)=(1/4)($40/share)+(3/4)($20/share)=$25/shareE(X)=Pr1X1+Pr2X2E(X)=Pr1X1+Pr2X2+...+PrnXn

DESCRIBINGRISK5.1Variability● variabilityExtenttowhichpossibleoutcomesofanuncertaineventdiffer.● deviationDifferencebetweenexpectedpayoffandactualpayoff.OUTCOME1OUTCOME2ProbabilityIncome($)ProbabilityIncome($)ExpectedIncome($)Job1:CommissionJob2:FixedSalary.5

.992000510.5

.011500

1500TABLE5.1IncomefromSalesJobsTABLE5.2DeviationsfromExpectedIncome($)Outcome1 Deviation Outcome2 DeviationJob1Job22000

1510500

101000

510-500

-990

DESCRIBINGRISK5.1VariabilityOutcome1Deviation

SquaredDeviation

SquaredOutcome2Deviation

SquaredWeightedAverageStandard

DeviationJob1Job22000

1510250,000

1001000

510250,000

980,100250,000

9900500

99.5Table5.3Calculati