零售业的未来:可能影响未来十年的六大颠覆_the_future_of_retail_six_disruptions_that_could_shape_the_next_decade.docxVIP
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TheFutureofRetail:SixDisruptionsThatCouldShapetheNextDecade
Imaginingtomorrow’schallengesandopportunities—fromAIshoppingagentstocross-borderMA.
Copyright?2025BainCompany,Inc.Allrightsreserved.
BAINCOMPANY
1
TheFutureofRetail:SixDisruptionsThatCouldShapetheNextDecade
AtaGlance
、Tohelpexecutiveteamsprepareforloomingdisruptionsinretail,Bainhasconstructedsixprovocativevisionsofthefuturethatcouldmaterializeintheyearsahead.
、Thesepotentialoutcomesincludeacommoditizationofcorecapabilitiesbyautomation,anerosionofshopperloyaltybyAIagents,andaredefinitionofvalue.
、Otherdisruptionstoconsideraregrocersbecomingfast-movingconsumergoodsbusinesses,acontractionofstorenetworks,andacross-borderhuntforscale.
Retailersareinundatedwithoperationalchallengestoday.Butastheymanagetariffturbulenceandotherimmediateconcerns,theycan’taffordtolosesightofthelong-termevolutionofthestrategiclandscape.
Thetectonicmovementsgraduallyreshapingtheindustryhaven’tweakenedduringthisperiodofeconomicandgeopoliticalflux.Ifanything,they’vegottenmorepowerful.
Consider“beyondtrade”expansion.Moreandmore,retailersarediversifyingfromtraditionalbuyingandsellingofgoods,gainingaccesstonewprofitpoolsinareassuchasretailmedia,third-partymarketplaces,financialservices,andlogistics.Wecalculatethat“beyondtrade”activitiesaccountedfor15%ofsalesand25%ofprofitforretailersin2024,upfrom10%inbothcasesin2021(seeFigure1).Atthesametime,AIisgivingretailersnewtoolstoreinventalmosteveryelementoftheircoreretailingactivities,includingcoststructure,customerexperience,competitivedifferentiation,andmuchmore.
Bain’sresearchacrossretail,consumerbehavior,theapplicationofartificialintelligencebyretailers,andotherfieldsconvincesusthattheindustrywillbecomprehe
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