英文高盛美洲零售服装零售在第一季度业绩公布前重新审视我们的折扣价追踪指标12740kb.docxVIP

GoldmanSachs

GoldmanSachs

AmericasRetail:ApparelRetail

18

18May2025

PAGE10

said,therecentpauseonelevatedChinatariffrates(145%to30%for90days)hasamelioratedakeycomponentofthebuildingbearthesisonthesectorheadinginto1Qresults.Importantly,webelievethistemporaryshiftinpolicyprovidescriticalflexibilityforTJX/ROST/BURLtoimportgoodsforcategorieswithmateriallevelsofdirectChinasourcingexposureaheadofkeysellingseasons(holidayandbacktoschool).Lookingahead,weexpectfocustoshifttothepotentialsecondaryandtertiaryeffectsoftariffs,includingtheirimpactonconsumerdemandoverall.

Howsecurearevendorrelationshipsinatariffenvironment?Off-priceretailershavelongemphasizedtheirsourcingflexibilitythroughstrongvendorpartnershipsandopportunisticbuying.Withthetariffratenowtemporarilyreducedbutstillhigherthanlastquarterat30%,focusshiftstohowvendorswillnavigatecostabsorptionandwhetherthisincrementalcosttricklesdowntoretailers.Whileoff-priceretailersarelargelyinsulatedfromdirectimportsinmostcategories(ex-home),theyremainindirectlyexposedviaU.S.-basedvendorswhomaystillfacemarginpressure.Thesetupputsaspotlighton2Hbuysandwhetheroff-pricerscanmaintainfullshelveswithoutsacrificingmarginorraisingprice.Wecontinuetobelievethisheadwindwillalsopressurefull-priceretailersineachrespectivecategory,providinganopportunityforoff-pricetoremaincompetitiveevenwithmodestpricingincreases.

Exhibit1:Webelievecategorieswithgloballydiversifiedsupplychainsarebetter-positionedtonavigatetariffs

%ofUSimportsfromChinavs.othernationsacrossselectcategories

100%

80%

60%

40%

20%

0%

SportinggoodsHomegoodsAccessories Footwear VacuumsandToys

Apparel

ChinaOther

Source:U.S.CensusBureau

Updatingourtrackersaheadof1Qresults

Bloombergdatasuggestsachoppycadenceth