市场难独力破局：气候中性房地产的两难.pptxVIP

Themarketalonewon’tfixit:

thedilemmaofclimate-neutralrealestate

8July2025

Content

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ExecutiveSummary

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EnergyandemissionsinEurope’scurrentbuildingstock

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Economicconsequencesofacarbon-heavyrealestatesector

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Investmentneedsforanet-zerobuildingstock

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AcceleratingthedecarbonizationofEurope’sbuildingstock:Policypathwaysandpriorities

AllianzResearch

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•Theresidentialrealestatesectorisamajoryetoftenunderestimated

contributortogreenhousegasemissionsinEurope.Decarbonizinghousingiscrucialforachievingcarbonneutralitybutpresentscomplexchallengesduetotheregion’soutdatedbuildingstock,highrenovationcostsandfragmentedownershipstructures.InmajorEuropeaneconomies(Germany,France,Italy,SpainandtheNetherlands),directemissionsfromhomesaccountfrom7%

(Spain)to14%(Germany)ofnationaltotals,onparwithorevenexceedingindustrialemissions.Whenindirectemissionsareincluded,thissharecandouble,underscoringthesector’ssystemicclimateimpact.

•Short-termpain,long-termgain:Underanet-zeroscenario,housepricescouldbe10bps(France)to50bps(Germany)higher.Inanet-zeroscenario,by2030,theeffectivecarbontaxintherealestatesectorisexpectedtobe80%higheronaveragerelativetothelikelyscenario(mid-waybetweenthetwoNGFSscenariosBelow2°CandNDCs),asstill-highemissionscontend

withelevatedcarbonprices.However,asdecarbonizationefforts,suchas

retrofitting,fuelswitchingandefficiencyimprovements,takeeffect,real

estateemissionswillfallandtheeffectivecarbontaxdecline.By2040,the

sectorwouldbecomemorecost-efficientunderthenet-zeropaththanina

likelyscenario,reducingexposuretofuturecarboncosts.Thistransformationhasdirectimplicationsforinvestmentactivitiesintherealestatesector.By

2050,housingmarketactivity(investment