2026-27 季度展望更新：突破边界.pptxVIP

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QuarterlyOutlook

Update2026-27:

Stretchingthe

limits

EndofQ42025updatedeconomicandcapitalmarketsoutlook

GLOBALECONOMICOUTLOOK2026-27

GlobalOutlook2025-27:Stretchingthelimits

1GlobalGDPgrowthremainsstrong…fornow,at2.9%in2026withtwothirdsoftheupsiderevisioncomingfromtheUSandChina.

10Downsiderisks:institutional,geopoliticalandfinancial.Geopoliticaltensions(Ukraine,MiddleEast,NATO-Russia,China-Taiwan),USinstitutionaluncertainty,AIequitycorrection,de-dollarization,turbulenceinprivatecreditmarketsandTruss-stylerisksingovernmentbondsloom.

2TheUSeconomyisincreasinglyrunningontwospeeds:theimpactofthetradewariscompensatedbyAIandtheUSconsumerbenefitsfromfiscalandmonetaryeasing.

4TheEurozoneremainsonamoderategrowthpathamidstructuralchallenges,withtheGermanstimulusonlyprogressivelybearingfruitsandFranceavoidingfurtherfiscalstress(byathinmargin).

8Globalcorporatesheadinto2026onastrongmomentum:Asmanyfirmshavedeleveraged,theyhaveroomtoincreaseborrowingtofundnecessarycapex,withaninvestmentcyclecatchingupinEurope.

6Globaltradesurprisedontheupsideamidpositivetradedealsandrerouting.

7Theemergingmarketsrallyissettoconsolidatein2026,butthemonetaryeasingcyclehaspeakedandpilling-upvulnerabilities(currentaccountdeficits,debtmaturingwall)askforgreaterselectivity.

9Capitalmarketsholdupdespitealatecycle,withequityperformanceexpectedtodeceleratebutnotfalterandratesmovingsideways.

3Chinaisallaboutexports–despitethetradewar,butdomesticdemandwillcontinuetostruggledespitehigherfiscalstimulus.

5Monetaryandfiscalpolicy:Loosefiscalpolicyeverywherebutmonetarypolicydivergenceisincreasing.

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