智能体化 AI：自动驾驶经济时代来临？.pptxVIP

AsenicAl;

Theselfdrnvingeconomy?

16September2025

Content

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ExecutiveSummary

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TheriseofagenticAI

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Intechwetrust:EconomicopportunityandsocialcostsofagenticAI

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Fromco-pilottoautopilot:SubstitutabilityoflaborforAIcapital

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Newtools,newpolicies:policyleversthatmatterfordemand

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Annex

AllianzResearch

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•AgenticAI–capableofautonomousdecision-makingandexecutingcomplextaskswithouthumanintervention–marksasignificantleapinartificial

intelligence,withthepotentialtoprofoundlyreshapeeconomiesand

labormarketsacrosstheglobe.Theeconomicpromiseisconsiderable,with

projectedglobalgainsofUSD2.6-4.4trnoverthenexttwotofiveyears,driven

byproductivityandinnovation.Butthekeyquestioniswhetherthisproductivitygrowthwillcomeatthecostofwidespreadunemployment.Historically,thelaborshareofnationalincomeremainedrelativelystablethroughoutmostofthe

postwarperiod,suggestingthattechnologicaladvancementscomplemented

ratherthanreplacedlabor.Inrecentyears,however,thistrendhasshifted

downward,raisingconcernsabouttheincreasingsubstitutabilityoflaborwithAIsystems.ComparedtoearlierAItechnologies,includinggenerativeAI,agentic

AIposesagreaterrisktoemployment,withrecentestimatessuggestingthatupto60%ofjobsinadvancedeconomiesand40%ofglobalemploymentcouldbeeitheraugmentedorautomatedbyAI.Thescaleofthisdisruptioncouldmirror

thetransformativeeffectsoftheIndustrialRevolution,fundamentallychallengingexistingmodelsoflabor,incomedistributionandeconomicgrowth.

•Toassesstherelationshipbetweenlaborandcapital,weanalyzelabor

demandacrossseveralcountries.WhileinGermany,Spain,Italy,andPoland,

grossfixedcapitalformationandlaborappeartobeclearcomplements,with

PolandandItalyshowingthestrongestpositiveeffectAustria,France,andthe

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