2025–27 季度展望更新：十大热点问题解析.pptxVIP

Allianzo

QuarterlyOutlook

Update2025-27:

10Top-of-Mind

Questions,Answered

EndofQ32025updatedeconomicandcapitalmarketsoutlook

2October2025

2

Hasstagflationtransitionedfromaloomingrisktoanundeniablereality?

Yes,butit’sgoingtobe“stagflationlight”comparedto2022.

3

Cancentralbanksuntangletheircomplexdilemmas?

ECBdone,Fedcutslessthanmarketsexpect,BoEmoreandBoJbalancingQTandratehikes.

4

IstheUSDsdominancefacinganeweraofuncertainty?

Yes-butdon’twriteitoffyet.CapitalinflowstotheUSarestillstrong.

5

Howfarcanfiscaldominancepropellong-terminterestrates?

Trussmomentsarepossibleglobally,leadingtofurtherspikesinrates,butcentralbank“puts”remaininplace.

6

WilltheEUfinallyrampupdefensespendingin2026-27?

Moderatespendingincreaseof10-20%seemsmorerealistic,i.e.+0.2ppimpactonEuropeanGDPgrowth

7

Howarefirmsnavigatingthechallengeofpersistentlyhighfinancingcosts?

CreditdemandispickingupintheUSdespitetightconditionswhileEuropeandemandremainssluggish.Paymenttermsarestillincreasingasbusinessinsolvencieswillonlypeakin2027.

8

Isacapitalmarketbubbleonthehorizon?

No,buttheAIboomlooksfullypricedin,leavinglimitednear-termupsideinequitymarkets.

9

Whichemergingmarketsaregrapplingwithrisingimbalances?

EmergingmarketslikeArgentina,Brazil,Egypt,andIndonesiafacerisingimbalancesamidanexpansionarycycle,valuationconcerns,andvulnerabilitiestorisk-offshifts

10

Whateventscouldsteerustowardsadownsidescenario?

Mainlylinkedtothetradewar,de-dollarization,sovereigndebtcrisis,NATO-Russiaconflict,MiddleEastescalation,China-Taiwanopenconflict.

GLOBALECONOMICOUTLOOK2025-2027

10Top-of-MindQuestions,Answered

1Whotrulybearsthecostoftheongoingtradewar?

PrimarilyexportersinregionslikeAsia,CanadaandMexico,butalsotheUSconsumerastheimpacto