夏日忧思：2025–26 年年中经济展望.pptxVIP

Summertimesadness

Mid-yeareconomicoutlook2025-26

3July2025

Content

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ExecutiveSummary

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Globaloutlook:Slowermomentum,yetsomeresilienceamidglobaltensions

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Inflationandcentralbanks:Transatlanticdivergencecontinues

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Developedmarkets:Feelingtariffpainbutliftedbyfiscalsupport

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Emergingmarkets:Chinastableamidtraderelief,whileregionaldivergencewidens

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Corporates:ResilientUSprofitsandinventorydisciplinemeetEurope’swarehousingof

uncertainty

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Capitalmarketsoutlook:Resilienceamidgeopoliticalwoes

AllianzResearch

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•“UnderPressure”:Globalgrowthwillremainunderpressureat+2.5%in2025,theslowestsince2008outsideofrecessionperiods.TheUSforecasthasbeenupgradedby+0.8ppto+1.6%in2025-26duetothelowereffectivetariffs.TheEurozoneshouldseegrowthat+1.2%,largelydrivenbysmallereconomies,whileGermanyisprojectedtosee+1%growthonlyin2026

after+0.1%in2025.Emergingmarketsshowmixedresults,somebenefitingfromFXappreciationandincreasedinvestmentflows,withcurrencygainsaveraging10%year-to-date.Tradeforecastsfor2025suggestaslight

improvement:Globaltradeingoodsisexpectedtogrowby+0.3%(andGlobaltradeofgoodsandservices+1%),drivenbycontinuedfrontloadingand

rerouting,though2026remainssubduedwithprojectedgrowthof+1.2%duetopersistentuncertainties.

•Tradetensions,geopoliticalrisksandfiscalchallengescould“Rockthe

Boat”.ThepathtoourUStariffbaselinescenarioprovedtobemorerapid,butglobaluncertaintycontinuestoprevailatrecord-highlevels.Thiswill

leadtoasynchronizeddeclineintheeconomiccycleinbothdevelopedandemergingmarkets,lastseeninthesecondhalfof2022duringpeakinflation.SinceourlastEconomicOutlookon10April,theUSglobalimporttariffratehasbeenloweredfrom25%to