2025–26 年年中经济展望：夏日忧思.pptxVIP

Mid-yearEconomic

Outlook2025-26:

Summertime

sadness

EndofQ22025updatedeconomicandcapitalmarketsoutlook

©Allianz2025

useconomicpolicyfromtariffstodeportationsand

capitalgaintaxesisincreasingglobaluncertaintyEconomicpolicyuncertaintyindex

Bothdevelopedandemergingmarketsareina

synchronizedslowingcycle

Demandinmanufacturingsector(PMlindex,neworders+backlogofwork)

problemthantariffs

sources:LSEGDatastream,AllianzResearchsources:LSEGDatastream,AllianzResearch

GLOBALECONOMICOUTLOOK2025-2026

©Allianz2025

4

scenarioprovedtobemorerapid

sensitivitiestoa+10ppsincreaseinimporttariffsplaceAmericasasthehardest-hitregion

percentagepoints

useffectiveglobalimporttariffratedroppedmore

quicklythanpreviouslyexpected

weightedaverage,%

April2025

June2025

source:AllianzResearchsource:OECD,oxfordEconomics,AllianzResearch

GLOBALECONOMICOUTLOOK2025-2026

GDpgrowthimpact

©Allianz2025

5

sentimentsours-butitsnostompede

usconsumersandfirmsmoredownbeatthantheir

Europeancounterparts

capitallefttheuspost-LiberationDay,butsection

899relief,steadiesoutlook

sources:LSEGDatastream,AllianzResearchsources:USTreasury,AllianzResearch

Netussecuritypurchasesbyforeigninvestors,bilionusD

GLOBALECONOMICOUTLOOK2025-2026

consumerconfidence,z-score

©Allianz2025

putsthedollarsprivilegedstatusatrisk

Theuspaysonaverager20bpsloweryields*onitsgovernmentdebtcomparedtoitsdebtorposition

Theeurohasappreciated,despitelessattractivereturns,signalingreducedusinvestment

sources