为全球韧性重塑气候适应策略.pptxVIP

Rethinkingclimate

adaptationforglobalresilience

15April2025

Content

4

ExecutiveSummary

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Weighingthecostsofnon-adaptation

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Thegrowingfinancialburdenofclimatedisastersinhigh-incomenations

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Thedisproportionateburdenofclimatedisastersondevelopingeconomies

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Adaptationfinanceislaggingbehindmitigationfinance

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Strengtheningclimateadaptationforaresilientfuture

AllianzResearch

2

Reducingcarbonemissionswillnotbeenoughonitsown.AccordingtonewlyreleasedprojectionsfromtheNGFS,evenunderanet-zerotransitionscenario,globalGDPisexpectedtoshrinkby8%comparedtoabaselinewithout

climatechange,aneconomictollmoreseverethanpreviouslyestimated.

Thelatestestimates(Phase5)showthatthenet-zeropathwaywouldleadto

anadditional6%GDPdeclinecomparedtoPhase4projections,resultingin

USD1.24trninextraglobaleconomiclossesby2050.InEurope,forexample,

underthemostambitiontransitionscenario,cumulativeflood-relateddamagescouldreducehouseholddisposableincomebyapproximatelyUSD107,000,

withdisproportionateeffectsacrosscountries.Developingeconomiesface

asignificantlyhighertollfromextremeweatherevents,bothinhumanand

economicterms.While71%ofreporteddisastersoccurredindeveloped

countries,91%offatalitieswereindevelopingnationsduetoweakinfrastructureandlimitedearly-warningsystems.LeastDevelopedCountries(LDCs)andSmallIslandDevelopingStates(SIDS)haveexperiencedseverefinancialdevastationduetoclimatechange,withsomedisasterswipingoutover100%ofGDP.Theselossesunderscorethegrowingrisksofclimateimpactsandhighlighttheurgentneedforadaptationmeasuresalongsidemitigationefforts.

Yet,adaptationfinanceremainsseverelyunderfunded.By2030,theannualdemandforadaptationfundingisprojectedtoreachUSD387bn.Butonly

USD63.5bnwasmobilizedasof2022,leavingamassiveUSD323.5bnshortfall.