黑色星期五：美国零售业的锦上添花吗？.pptxVIP

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Content

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ExecutiveSummary

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Winterhasnotyetcome:Stillwaitingfortariffeffects

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ThetruecostoftariffsforUSconsumersandfirms

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Europe:Buyinggreatagain?

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Futurechallengesanddrivers–Threetrendstotrack

AllianzResearch

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•Monthsoftradeuncertaintyandhighertariffshaven’tstoppedUS

shoppersfromaddingtotheircartsthroughouttheyear.BlackFriday

andCyberMondaysalesarelikelytohitanewrecordthisyearbuttheUSconsumptionenginehasbeenresilientthroughoutthetariffuncertainty.

AdvanceCensusBureaudatashowthatretailandfoodservicesalesin

Septemberwere4.3%higheryear-to-date,puttingtheindustryontrackforitsbestperformancesince2022,withturnoverupby+4%thisyear(vs.+3%inEurope).Frontloadingbeforetariffskickedinprovidedastronghead

start,andthemomentumdidnotfalterasinitiallyfeared,supportedby

lowerinterestrates,solidjobsandcontainedinflation.Moreimportantly,companiesfoodbeverages,electronicsandpersonalcarechoseto

absorbtariff-relatedcostsratherthanpassingthemontoconsumers,withmarginsdeterioratingby1-3%.StartinginQ3,priceshavestartedrising

graduallyintoys,apparelandfurniture,whiletheystillremainlimited

infoodandelectronicgoods.Meanwhile,ratherthanbringafloodof

productionbackonshore,UScompaniesarerecalibratingtheirglobal

footprint,expandingintostrategicallylocated,lower-costmarketsto

preservecompetitivenessandhedgefuturetraderiskwhilealsoreducingtheirexposuretoChina(USimportsdown-36%sinceApril).Inthetoyandapparelindustries,forexample,demandisshiftingfromChinatoVietnamandotherAsiancountrieslikeCambodiaandIndonesia.

•Nevertheless,cracksinthejobmarketandwideningincomedisparitiescouldweighonconsumeroptimismin2026-2027.TheoutlookforUS

retailisbrightert