古老贸易路线，会成为新贸易战的战场吗？.pptxVIP

Oldtraderoutes

fornewtradewars?

05November2025

Content

5

ExecutiveSummary

18

Oldtraderoutesriskfallingshort

22

Newhubsconnectingtrade

30

Financinglandscape

AllianzResearch

2

•Inaworlddividedbygeopolitics,protectionismandtheeffectsof

climatechange,globaltradeisforgingnewpaths.Commerceis

increasinglytakingplacebetweengeopoliticallyalignedeconomies,withtheUSmovingimportsawayfromChina,theEUsharplycuttingtradewithRussiaandChina’stradenowdominatedbydevelopingeconomiesin

Asia,LatinAmericaandAfrica.A+10%riseingeopoliticaldistancereducesbilateraltradeby-2%,underscoringtheimportanceofpoliticalalignmentandadaptivesupplychains.Thisgeopoliticalfragmentationhascoincidedwitharesurgenceofprotectionism.Inthepastyearalone,traderestrictionshavetripledtoaffectanestimatedUSD2.7trnofmerchandise–nearly20%ofglobalimports–fuelingfriendshoringandregionalization.Morethan

halfoftheglobaltradegrowthweforecastfor2025¹isbasedpreciselyonreroutingofUSimportsfromChina,frontloadingofshipmentsaheadofhigherUStariffsandtradediversification,whichtogetheraccountfor

1.3ppofoverallgrowthof+2%.Lookingaheadto2026and2027,we

expectglobaltradeofgoodsandservicestoslowdownto+0.6%and

+1.8%,respectively,highlightingthedelayedimpactofthetradewarandthechallengesthatcurrenttradeinfrastructurewillhavetomanage.

•Establishedroutesstillcarrymorethanhalfofglobaltrade.However,globallogisticshavebecomemorevulnerabletoshockssincethe

pandemicandasignificantsupplydisruptioncanresultinatemporarydoublingofcontainerfreightrates.This“core”categoryincludesthe

SuezCanal(12%ofglobaltrade),Malacca(40%)andtheStraitofHormuz(roughlyone-fifthofworldoiland20%ofLNG),aswellasinlandand

coastaltradearteries(eg.EuropesRhineandDanub