2026 年经济与市场展望.pptxVIP

Economicandmarketoutlook2026

AbusinessofMarshMcLennan

Investmentislikelytoremainstrong,drivenbytheAIboom.ThesumsinvolvedarehugeandarelikelytobenefittheUSandothercountrieswherethe

infrastructurebuild-outisunderway,aswellasthosecountriesexportingtheunderlyinghardware.

Theeuro-areaeconomyshouldalsostrengthenalittle,supportedbyinvestment-ledgrowthinGermanyonthebackofitsinfrastructureanddefensespendingplans.

Whileeconomicgrowthintheeurozoneislikelytobe

betteroverthenextfewyears,itremainstobeseen

whetherthisgrowthwillbestrong.Muchwilldepend

onwhethertheregionimprovesitscompetitivenessby

implementingsomeofthereformsrecommendedinthe2024Draghireport.Whilethemoodmusicontheneedforchangehascertainlyimproved,whetherthiswilltranslateintoactionisstillanopenquestion.

ThesamecanbesaidabouttheUK.Itsproblemsare

wellknown—poorlytargetedgovernmentspending,

lowinvestmentandproductivitygrowth,anonerous

regulatoryregime(includingplanning),andpoor

governmentfinances.ThenewLabourgovernmenthasrecentlybeguntograspthescaleofthechallenges,butinsufficientprogresshasbeenmade.Havingsaidthat,pessimismabouttheUKseemsoverblownand,aswe

explainedinarecentpaper2,wedonotseetheUKfacingafiscalcrisis.

WeremainoptimisticontheoutlookforJapanandthink

theeraofdelationisoverandthatJapanmaybeenteringanewphasecharacterizedbystrongernominalgrowth

andimprovedcorporategovernance.

InChina,thepropertycrisispersists,withconsumption

stuckatlowlevels.However,China’sleadinabroadrangeoftechnologiesshouldsupporttheeconomyoverthenextdecade,whileaneventualconsumerrecoveryshouldhelp

2025hasfeltlikeahugelyconsequentialyear,and2026islikelytofollowsuit.PresidentTrumpseemstohaveputtheUSonadif