保险公司核心考量：重塑未来发展格局.pptxVIP

Topconsiderationsforinsurers

Rethinkingthefuture

AbusinessofMarshMcLennan

Insurersenter2026facingashort-termenvironmentshapedbystructuralchangebutcharacterizedby

unevensignalsandelevatedvolatility.Thereseton

USpolicyin2025,includingtarifsandindustrial

reorientation,hasnotcausedtheseveredislocation

previouslyfeared;yetithasinjectedpersistent

uncertaintyintotradelows,inputcostsandglobal

supplychains.Atthesametime,theAIinvesting

boomisseeingawaveofcapitalexpenditure,creatingsharpdispersionacrosssectorsandassetclasses.

Theseforceshavekeptbondandequityvolatilityhigherthaninthepre-pandemiccycleandhave

shortenedthemarket’sreactionhorizon,adynamicthatinsurersmustfactorintoriskbudgets,capitalplanningandportfoliodesign.

Inthenearterm,globalgrowthisexpectedtoimprove

modestlyastradeheadwindsfadeandpolicysettings

ease.TheUSwillstillfeeltheinlationaryefectsof

tarifpass-throughsin2026,butfiscalsupport,strong

householdbalancesheetsandlowerinterestrates

shouldcushiondemand.Europeisshowingsigns

ofstabilization,ledbyGermany’sinvestmentpush,

althoughmuchdependsonwhetherlong-awaited

competitivenessreformsmaterialize.Japancontinues

toexperiencemodestinlation,whileChinaremains

weigheddownbyproperty-sectoradjustmentevenasitstechnologystrengthslendmedium-termresilience.Acrossregions,thesemixedsignalscontributetoshorter,morevolatileeconomiccycles,withdatasensitivitylikelyto

remainelevated.

Forinsurers,theshort-terminvestmentimplications

revolvearoundnavigatingthishigher-volatility

equilibrium.Inlationshouldremainclosetocentralbanktargets,withUStarifpressuresfadingasweapproach2027andwagegrowthdrivingthemedium-termpath.

Marketsareconvergingtowardlong-runequilibriumsingrowthandpolicyrates,limitingdirect