2023_HSB_iCM_Problem_B“华数杯”国际大学生数学建模竞赛历年优秀论文.pdfVIP

2023HuashuCupInternationalMathematicalContestinModeling

ICM

ProblemB:SocialStabilityEarlyWarningStudy

Background

Humanbeings,likeallanimals,havetheinstincttoseekadvantageandavoid

harm.Thekeytohumansbeingthelordofcreationisthattheyarebetteratavoiding

harmthanotheranimals.Crisesarealwayslurkinginthefuture.Thehistoryofhuman

developmentisahistoryofconstantattemptstotranscendcrisis(YanYaojun,2003).

Thinkingofdangerintimesofpeace,measuringandwarningsocialstability,has

alwaysbeenhighlyvaluedbyfar-sightedrulersandpoliticians.

However,itisnoteasytoovercomethecrisisintheincreasinglycompetitiveand

crisis-pronemodernsociety.Wemustrelyonmodernsocialmeasurementscienceand

modernsocialearlywarningscience.Socialmeasurementandsocialearlywarning

arecloselyrelated.Inordertoaccuratelyconductearlywarningofsocialcrisis,itis

necessarytofindoutseveralfactorsaffectingsocialstability.

Therearemanyfactorsthataffectsocialstability,suchassurvivalsecurity,

economicsupport,socialdistribution,socialcontrol,socialpsychology,external

environment,etc.Thesefactorsintertwineandinfluenceeachother,andtogether

supportallaspectsofsociety.Oncethereisalargefluctuationinonefactor,itwill

directlyorindirectlyaffectotherfactorsinsociety,whichwillleadtounrestor

collapseofsociety.

Thepeacefulandnon-violentregimechangemovements,namedbycolors,

occurredinseveralcountriesandregionsattheendofthelastcenturyandthe

beginningofthiscenturyachievedtheirgoalsbyattackingtheweakestlinkaffecting

socialstability.Themultiplefactorsareoriginallyanorganicwhole,butoncethereis

animbalanceintheratiooftheforcesactingonthefactors,societybecomedeformed

andsocialstabilityfalters.Then,beforetheemergenceofsocialstabilit