奥纬-米其林中国2030年快速市场场景与预测研究报告.pptxVIP

SURFACETRANSPORTATION?OliverWymanMICHELIN–2030LASTMILEDELIVERYMARKETScenariosandmodelingresultsforChinaOctober14th,20XXPreparedforMr.ErikGrab

CONFIDENTIALITYOurclients’industriesareextremelycompetitive.Theconfidentialityofcompaniesplansanddataisobviouslycritical.OliverWymanwillprotecttheconfidentialityofallsuchclientinformation.Similarly,managementconsultingisacompetitivebusiness.WeviewourapproachesandinsightsasproprietaryandthereforelooktoourclientstoprotectOliverWymansinterestsinourpresentations,methodologiesandanalyticaltechniques.UndernocircumstancesshouldthismaterialbesharedwithanythirdpartywithoutthewrittenconsentofOliverWyman.Copyright?OliverWyman

AgendaFreightlastmiledelivery2030scenarios–China32030marketmodeling–China12AppendixModelsKeyAssumptions28Modelsdetailedresults–China37DetailsonSegments45Reminder–LastMileDeliveryTrends57

Freightlastmiledelivery2030scenarios–ChinaSection#1

?OliverWyman4Reminder–OverviewofChineseurbanmobilitypatternsSource:OliverWymananalysesUrbanformDevelopmentaroundonemegacity“Hubs”:Verticalhousing“Spokes”:mid-to-big-sizecitieswithlowerdensity,equalcityservicesand(evenbetter)livingconditionsFreightmobilityHighshareofpublictransport:metroin“Hubs”,Tram/bus/BRTfor“spokes”suburbsPeoplemayliveinonecityandworkinanothercity,commutingwithHighspeedtrainEmergenceofEVcitycarsStronggrowthofrail–truckmixGoodsconsolidatedinwarehousesinsuburbs+smalleronesdowntownLastmiledeliverybyE-trucks,and2/3wheelersI.HubSpokeScatteredmidsizecitiesII. III.SprawlingmegacitiesPeoplemobilityNomegacityintheregionSmallercitieswithgoodpublicservicesLowercitypopulationdensityMostlyICEvehiclesPeopleliveandworkinthesamecity.Marginalpublictransport:Tram/bus/BRTLimiteddevelopmentofEVcitycarsSprawlingmegacities,wit