2000Mckinsey+美国电信服务行业研究报告.pdfVIP

September 8, 2000 J.P. Morgan Securities Inc. New York Equity Research Industry Analysis Backbone! How Changes in Technology and the Rise of IP Threaten to Disrupt the Long-Haul Telecom Services Industry Highlights of a Forthcoming Joint Industry Study by McKinsey Company and J.P. Morgan • Explosive growth in IP data – estimated to exceed 100% a year through 2004 – will soon position IP as the dominant form of traffic on long-haul networks and drive aggregate long-haul traffic growth of over more than 60% annually versus 20% historically, in our view. • Continued investment in new technologies by transport providers will be necessary to meet demand and lower costs, but we believe network scale and utilization will emerge as the most important determinants of cost competitiveness. As a result, carriers will have large incentives to cut price to compete for traffic on their networks. • We believe key IP-based services are set to take significant share from legacy voice and data services and exert a disproportionate influence on pricing of those legacy services, resulting in slowing aggregate industry revenue growth. • The industry will likely face considerable turmoil as challengers seek to take advantage