外文翻译--使用永久性收入假说预测.docVIP

本科毕业论文外文翻译 外文题目：Using the permanent income hypothesis for forecasting. 出 处：Economic Quarterly ; Winter95, Vol. 81 Issue 1, p49, 15p, 2 Charts, 2 Graphs 作 者： Ireland, Peter N. 原 文： ABSTRACT Discusses the use of Milton Friedmans permanent income hypothesis to explain the behavior of consumption, income and savings in the United States. Irving Fishers theory of interest; Robert Halls mathematical version of the permanent income hypothesis; John Campbells formulation of an econometric forecasting model using data on savings to project future income growth.. 1. INTRODUCTION Personal consumption expenditures grew by almost 2 percent during 1993 in real, per-capita terms. Real disposable income per capita, meanwhile, actually fell slightly. By definition, households draw down their savings when consumption grows faster than income. In fact, the figures for consumption and income just mentioned underlie a decline in the personal savings rate from over 6 percent in the fourth quarter of 1992 to only about 4 percent in the fourth quarter of 1993. One popular interpretation of these data starts with the idea that reductions in the savings rate cannot be permanently sustained. Eventually, households must rebuild their savings by cutting back on consumption; to the extent that lower consumption leads to lower income, income must fall as well. Thus, in U.S. News Worm Report, David Hage (1993-94) used the behavior of consumption, income, and savings to forecast that the economy would slow in 1994: [A] slowdown in consumer spending is likely, and it could trim an additional 0.6 percentage point off growth (p. 43). Around the same time, Gene Epstein (1993) of Barrons quoted economist Philip Braverman as saying that consumers dont have the wherewithal to keep up the current spending pace. The prevailing euphoria will get knock