外文翻译--中國的二氧化碳排放量使用省級信息的预测路径.docVIP

（2011届） 本科毕业设计（论文） 外文翻译 Forecasting The Path of China’s CO2 Emissions Using Province Level Information ?Auffhammer，M．，Carson，R?T．Abstract Our results suggest that the anticipated path of China’s Carbon Dioxide(CO2)emissionshas dramatically increased over the last five years. The magnitude of the projected increase in Chinese emissions out to 2010 is several times larger than reductions embodied in the KyotoProtocol. Our estimates are based on a unique provincial level panel data set from the Chinese Environmental Protection Agency. This dataset contains considerably more information relevan to the path of likely Chinese greenhouse gas emissions than national level time series models currently in use. Model selection criteria clearly reject the popular static environmental Kuznetscurve specification in favor of a class of dynamic models with spatial dependence. Keywords: Forecasting, Climate Change, China, Model Selection Introduction The People’s Republic of China(PRC)has long been seen as the key future participant to an ective agreement limiting the adverse impacts of climate change. It is currently the number two emitter of carbon dioxide(CO2)and is about to overtake the United States, who has held this position since 1890,as the leading emitter. Further, the United States has long preconditioned its adherence to any international agreement such as the Kyoto Protocol on China’s formal concurrence that it would also undertake substantial CO2 reductions. E?orts to reach such an agreement failed in the late 1990’s during the Clinton administration and the Bush administration decided not to pursue policies that would allow it to sign the treaty and have it ratified by the U.S. Senate. This paper presents econometric forecasts that strongly suggest that the short to medium term path of Chinese CO2 emissions has increased by a factor of two or more since that time. Our best forecast has China’s CO2 emiss