养老保险制度、人力资本形成与经济增长.pdf

论文摘要 本文在对养老保险的历史、经济理论基础和在中国的实践回顾的基础上发现，养老 保险制度与经济增长的关系主要可以从物质资本和人力资本两方面进行分析，运用 我国31 个地区2000 至2009 年的面板数据进行检验，验证我国养老金给付对人力 资本投资是存在“挤入效应”还是存在“挤出效应”，以及养老金税率是否与经济 增长有显著的相关关系。计量结果显示我国现行的养老保险制度对我国城镇居民的 人力资本投资有“挤入效应”，养老金的给付增加会促进居民增加人力资本投资， 但我国各地区养老金税率和经济增长率之间的负向相关关系不显著，我国的经济增 长主要的贡献还是来自于居民的储蓄率和人口增长率。结合理论和实证研究的结论 本文认为，目前我国的养老金制度仍是以现收现付制为主，“统账结合”模式尚未 形成。最后在结论基础上提出相应的政策建议。 关键词：养老保险制度 人力资本投资 经济增长 I ABSTRACT The paper discusses the effects of age insurance system, human capital investment and economic growth in China. The author review the history of endowment insurance, the economic theory foundation and the practice in China and find that the relationship between age insurance system and the economic growth can be analyzed from two aspects: physical capital and human capital. The author uses the panel data from 2000 to 2009 of 31 regions in China to finish the quantitative analysis. Measuring results show that Chinas current endowment insurance system has pushed effect for urban residents human capital investment, pension payment increase will promote residents increase the investment of human capital. The negative correlation between Chinas local pension tax rates and economic growth was not significant, our economic growth major contributions or from residents savings rate and population growth. Combining theoretical and empirical studies, this paper has a conclusion: in China the pension system is still given priority to PAYG. KEY WORDS：Social Security; Human Capital Investment; Economic Growth II 目录 一、引言 1 二、养老保险制度及中国养老保险制度的改革历程 3 （一）养老保险制度的起源、演变及基本模式 3 （二）中国养老保险制度的改革