我国房地产业上市公司财务预警模型适用性研究及其实证分.pdfVIP

论 文 摘 要 近几年以来，我国房地产业进入高速发展时期。作为国民经济支柱行业，房地产在 现代社会经济生活中有着举足轻重的地位。随着国内房地产行业规模扩张不断加快，融 资需求额加大，国家也逐渐采取了严格的宏观政策对其调控，房地产企业出现财务危机 的可能性也在加大。对房地产企业的财务危机进行预警和监控具有着重要的现实和研究 意义。 本文在阅读和研究了国内外有关财务预警的理论和研究成果的基础上，结合我国房 地产业的发展现状，探索财务预警模型在我国房地产业的适用性。以近三年的财务报表 数据为研究基础，文章首先针对 Z 值模型在房地产业上市公司的适用性和有效性进行实 证研究分析。结果表明，Z 值模型的适用性存在一定的问题。基于此，笔者探索使用逻 辑回归方法建立了相应的财务预警模型，并使用“回代”数据的方法对模型的适用性进 行了检验。检验效果表明，模型具有一定的实用性。基于此，笔者利用此模型对已出的 房地产上市公司 2009 年年报数据进行了预警研究和分析。 关键词：房地产，财务预警，实证分析，Z 值模型，逻辑回归模型 ABSTRACT In recent years, the real estate industry of China has had a very rapid development. As one of the pillar industries of the national economy, the real estate industry has played a key role in modern social and economic life. The asset size of the real estate industry growth is becoming faster in our country. At the same time, the macro control of real estate industry is strengthening. This makes the financial crisis in real estate industry gradually increase. To monitor the financial crisis of the real estate has an important meaning of both fact and research. Based on of summarizing the research of domestic and foreign results, combined with analysis of the current situation in Chinas real estate enterprise, this article aims at finding the domestic applicability of the Crisis-Forecasting-System Model. On the basis of financial reports of the late three years, this article firstly analyses the domestic applicability of Z-Score Model. The result indicated that Z-Score Model is not very feasible. Therefore, a Crisis-Forecasting-System Model, the Logistic Regression Model is established. And this Logistic Regression Model is valuable to some extent. Moreover, the real estate’s financial report of 2009