出口、进口和经济增长的因果关系：基于转型经济的实证分析外文原文.pdfVIP

Economics Letters 94 (2007) 389 – 395 /locate/econbase Causality between exports, imports, and economic growth: Evidence from transition economies Titus O. Awokuse ⁎ Department of Food and Resource Economics, 213 Townsend Hall, University of Delaware, Newark, DE 19717, USA Received 7 September 2005; received in revised form 7 August 2006; accepted 30 August 2006 Available online 28 November 2006 Abstract The economic growth effects of CEEC market liberalization and increasing trade access to the larger EU market is an important empirical question worthy of investigation. This paper examines the impact of export and import expansion on growth in three transition economies. The empirical results suggest that trade stimulates economic growth. © 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. Keywords: CEEC nations; Cointegration; Economic growth; Granger causality; Trade JEL classification: F43; C32 1. Introduction Disagreements persist in the empirical literature regarding the causal direction of the effects of trade openness on economic growth. Some analysts argue that causality flows from exports to economic growth and denotes this as the export-led growth (ELG) hypothesis (Balassa, 1978; Bhagwati, 1978; Edwards, 1998). Export expansion and openness to foreign markets is viewed as a key determinant of economic growth because of the positive externalities it provides. For example, firms in a thriving export sector can enjoy the following benefits: efficient resource allocation, greater capacity utilization, exploitation of economies of scale, and increased technological innovation stimulated by foreign market competition ⁎ Tel.: +1 302 831 1323; fa