出口结构对出口的影响外文原文.pdfVIP

DE ECONOMIST 135,NR. 2, 1987 THE IMPACT OF THE COMPOSITION OF EXPORTS ON EXPORT PERFORMANCE BY S. BRAKMANAND C.J.JEPMA* I INTRODUCTION The issue of what determines countries export share in international trade has bft6n been the subject of empirical analysis. Often such an analysis is carried out by using simple single-equation models focussing on substitution of de- mand. Common practise thereby is to concentrate on the calculation of the elasticity of substitution between two exporters (usually the country concerned and a group of competitors) in a third market, simply by taking the quotient of the export demand equations for the two exporters. In such a framework competitiveness is crucially linked with relative prices. Reality, however, is far more complicated. The single-equation models there- fore have been subject to severe criticism for their simplicity and the a priori assumptions which have to be made. Most criticisms were of an econometric nature (starting from Orcutt, 1950);however, theoretical doubts have been ex- pressed as well. This resulted in some extensions of the model, e.g. the introduc- tion of supply factors, the incorporation of non-price factors, and the impac~ of the business cycle. A general weakness of the traditional trade models is still lack of attention to the impact of the differences in the composition of the ex- ports between competing countries on their relative export performance. Nev- ertheless Tyszynski (1951) did separate the impact of the composition of ex- ports and competitiveness on export performance; others followed, but the pre- cise relationship between the composition of exports and competitiveness remained unclear. The major contributi