出口与国外直接投资：企业把国外直接投资作为一种占据市场的手段？外文原文.pdfVIP

Rev World Econ (2009) 145:447–467 DOI 10.1007/s10290-009-0023-4 ORI GIN AL PA PER Exports versus FDI: do firms use FDI as a mechanism to smooth demand volatility? Yang-Ming Chang Æ Philip G. Gayle Published online: 30 August 2009 Kiel Institute 2009 Abstract In this paper, we first develop a simple two-period model of oligopoly to show that, under demand uncertainty, whether a firm chooses to serve foreign markets by exports or via foreign direct investment (FDI) may depend on demand volatility along with other well-known determinants such as size of market demand and trade costs. Although fast transport such as air shipment is an option for exporting firms to smooth volatile demand in foreign markets, market volatility may systematically trigger the firms to undertake FDI. We then use a rich panel of US firms’ sales to 56 countries between 1999 and 2004 to confront this theoretical prediction and show strong evidence in support of the prediction Keywords Exports Foreign direct investment Demand volatility Fast transport Trade costs JEL Classification F2 F12 F23 1 Introduction In the face of a fast-changing global economy, firms have to make decisions concerning whether they want to serve foreign markets by exports or locate their plants in host countries (i.e., foreign direct investment (FDI)). Considerable contributions have been made in explaining the economic Y.-M. Chang P. G. Gayle () Department of Economics, Kansas State University, 320 Waters Hall, Manhattan, KS 66506-4001, USA e-mail: gaylep@ 123 448 Y.-M. Chang, P. G. Gayle determinants of exports versus FDI.1 Among the important determinants are the advantag