出口和经济增长间的因果关系研究—来自南亚国家的证据外文原文.pdfVIP

MPRA Causality between Export and Growth: Evidence from South Asian Countries * † M. Abu Eusuf and Mansur Ahmed Abstract Strong economic growth accompanied with robust export performance leads many people to conclude that export sector of a country has pivotal role in the economic growth of that country. Empirical evidence on export growth nexus has been mixed and inconclusive. This study examined whether there was any time series support for such export-led growth hypothesis for South Asian Countries. Engle-Grangers Error Correction Model (ECM) was used to test the Granger causality between export and output. The study had produced fairly mixed results, and did not find any conclusive evidence in favor of export-led growth for South Asian Countries. While Pakistan, Srilanka and Bhutan were the cases of export-led growth, India, Nepal, and Maldives show the opposite result of growth-led exports. In one country, namely Bangladesh, the data had failed to detect any causality in either direction which is attributed in low value addition in export. Key Words: Export-led growth hypothesis, Granger causality test, Unit Root Tests, Error Correction Model. I. Introduction: The export-led growth hypothesis (ELGH) postulates that export expansion is one of the main determinants of economic growth. It holds that the overall g