贸易自由化对经济的影响：回归系数分析证明外文原文.pdfVIP

KYKLOS, Vol. 61 – 2008 – No. 4, 543–567 The Impact of Trade Liberalisation on Economic Growth: Evidence from a Quantile Regression Analysis Neil Foster I. INTRODUCTION Following the widespread adoption of import substitution policies in the 1950s and 1960s most developing countries since the start of the 1980s have shifted towards more open trade policies. The reasons for such a shift are varied and include the poor performance of import substitution policies1 (Krueger, 1997), the perceived weight of empirical evidence suggesting a relationship between openness and growth (Krueger, 1997)2, and most importantly external pressure due to the policies of the World Bank and IMF that required trade liberal- isation as part of a package of reforms when agreeing to loans.3 Despite the shift towards greater openness in developing countries, recent experience and evidence suggests that the benefits of trade reforms have not been as high as may have been expected (see for example Taylor, 1991; Winters, 2004). In addition, evidence suggests that the response of growth to liberal- isation has varied a great deal across countries, with many countries benefiting, but others losing out from trade reform. A number of explanations have been put forward for these outcomes, relating for example to the timing and sequencing of reforms, as well as their credibility and the commitment to reforms shown by political actors. A further reason relates to the fact that many Department of Economics, University of Vienna, Hohenstaufengasse 9, A1010, Vienna, Austria. Tel: 143-1-4277-37430. Email: neil.foster@univie.ac.at 1. This view is far from being uncontroversial. Rodrik (1999) argues that IS policies actually worked quite well at least until the mid-1970s and that the poor performance of such countries after 1973 was the result