外国直接投资（FDI）的作用：制成品进出口需求估计外文原文.pdfVIP

Estimating the Export and Import Demand for Manufactured Goods: The Role of FDI Mariam Camarero and Cecilio Tamarit University]aurae L Castell6n; University of Valencia Abstract: In this paper we estimate the demand for exports and imports of manu- factured goods for a panel containing the majority of the EU countries as well as the United States and Japan. The model includes as explanatory factors both the traditional determinants of trade and also the stock of foreign direct investment (FDI). We apply panel unit root and cointegration tests allowing for heterogeneity. Whereas there is no evidence of cointegration when using just the traditional for- mulation, the results are favorable to the existence of long-run relationships link- ing the variables of the augmented model. Moreover, the results point mainly to a complementary relationship between trade and FDI. JEL no. C23, F14, F21 Keywords: Export and import demand; New Trade Theory; panel data; unit roots; cointegration; foreign direct investment; MNCs 1 Introduction The demand for exports (or imports) has been traditionally specified as a function of a countrys competitiveness and a foreign (domestic) activity variable. Although this approach has been predominant in the empirical literature, it has remained controversial. Econometric work with data for different countries spanning a number of years faces some daunting chal- lenges: country- and time-specific effects, endogeneity of the explanatory Remark: The authors gratefully acknowledge the financial support from the Acci6n Integrada Project HB99-0078 and projects SEC2000-0751 and SEC2002-03651 from MCYT. The authors are als