外国直接投资与贸易之间的双向联系外文原文.pdfVIP

NBER WORKING PAPER SERIES FDI AND TRADE – TWO WAY LINKAGES? Joshua Aizenman Ilan Noy Working Paper 11403 /papers/w 11403 NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH 1050 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge, MA 02138 June 2005 The views expressed herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Bureau of Economic Research. ©2005 by Joshua Aizenman and Ilan Noy. All rights reserved. Short sections of text, not to exceed two paragraphs, may be quoted without explicit permission provided that full credit, including © notice, is given to the source. FDI and Trade – Two Way Linkages? Joshua Aizenman and Ilan Noy NBER Working Paper No. 11403 June 2005 JEL No. F 15, F21, F36, H21 ABSTRACT The purpose of this paper is to investigate the intertemporal linkages between FDI and disaggregated measures of international trade. We outline a model exemplifying some of these linkages, describe several methods for investigating two-way feedbacks between various categories of trade, and apply them to the recent experience of developing countries. After controlling for other macroeconomic and institutional effects, we find that the strongest feedback between the sub-accounts is between FDI and manufacturing trade. More precisely, applying Geweke (1982)’s decomposition method, we find that most of the linear feedback between trade and FDI (81%) can be accounted for by Granger-causality from FDI gross flows to trade openness (50%) and from trade to FDI (31%). The rest of the total linear feedback is attributable to