外商直接投资和技术转移：基于相对滞后的简单动态模型外文原文.pdfVIP

THE QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC S Vol. XCII February 1978 No . 1 RELATIVE BACKWARDNESS, DIRECT FOREIGN INVESTMENT, AND THE TRANSFER OF TECHNOLOGY: A SIMPLE DYNAMIC MODEL RONALD FINDLAY Ever since the Industrial Revolution it has been apparent that the fundamental determinant of modern economic growth is what David Landes has aptly called the Unbound Prometheus of cu- mulative technological change. Correspondingly, the spread of modern economic growth from the shifting dynamic centers of the world economy to the relatively more stagnant peripheries is intimately related to the processes by which technological changes have been diffused, imitated, and adapted . Speculative thinkers of the mag- nificent dynamics type from Marx, Veblen, and Schumpeter to Gerschenkron and Rostow are all united in the recognition of this fact, in spite of their otherwise widely differing viewpoints. Economic historians have detailed, and econometricians have computed the contribution of technological progress to economic growth in a number of countries. Economic theorists, however, have on the whole not devoted much attention to the formulation of explicit analytical models of technological diffusion. Two notable exceptions are Richard Nelson and Edwin Mansfield, upon whose work we shall be drawing in this paper . A major role in the diffusion of new technology in recent times has been played by the international corporations. While the book of blueprints in some abstract sense may be open to the world as a whole, even if one may have to pay a stiff price to look at some of the pages, new technology generally requires demonstra