China’s Exchange Rate Policy and Its Trade Balance with the US外文翻译.doc

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2017-09-14 发布于浙江
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China’s Exchange Rate Policy and Its Trade Balance with the US外文翻译.doc

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英文原文： China’s Exchange Rate Policy and Its Trade Balance with the US Abstract This paper investigates the claim that China’s exchange rate policy causes the US trade deficit with China to grow. Although there is no evidence that changes in the exchange rate cause the trade deficit to rise in the short run, a statistically significant long-run relationship between the RMB/dollar exchange rate and the US trade deficit with China is detected. As the value of the dollar declines (or RMB appreciates), ceteris paribus, so does the trade deficit. Hence, there is a need for China to adjust its exchange rate policy to help reduce the ever mounting US trade deficit. 1. Introduction In the last two decades, there have been spectacular increases in the bilateral trade between the US and China. In 1984, the volume of total trade (total exports and total imports) between the two countries was only US$6.07 bn, or 11.33% of China’s total foreign trade (US$53.55 bn) in that year. In 1990, it increased by three times to US$20.04 bn, or 17.35% of China’s total foreign trade (US$115.44 bn).Ten years later in 2000, the volume of total trade rose to US$116.20 bn, which accounted for 24.53% of China’s total trade of US$474.30 bn. In 2002, the bilateral trade between the US and China further increased by 27% to US$147.32 bn. Table 1 shows the top 20 partners in total US trade between 1990 and 2002.The order of the economies is sorted based on the volume of total trade in 2002. In 1990, China was ranked only 10th in total US trade with the rest of the world. It moved up to the rank of 9th one year later and to 7th two years after that. In 1996, China became the 4th most important trade partner of the US and has easily maintained that ranking. Table 1 also reveals another striking fact: the difference in the volume of total bilateral trade with the US between the top four partners (Canada, Mexico, Japan, and China) and the remaining top 16 partners is very large. For instance, the difference