人民币汇率变动对蒙中进出口贸易的影响研究.pdfVIP

摘要 近年来，蒙古国不断深化经济体制改革，加强与世界各国的合作与交流，并 在 1997 年 1 月成功加入世界贸易组织（WTO），至此，外贸进入快速增长阶段。 中国作为蒙古国的邻国也是多年来最大的贸易伙伴，在蒙中进出口贸易中，一直 扮演重要角色。2005 年实行汇改后，人民币汇率进入了史上幅度最大、时间最 长的一次升值，受此影响，人民币兑图格里克汇率也快速走高，而汇率的剧烈变 动是否会形成对蒙中进出口贸易的冲击，这种冲击的效果如何是本文研究的主要 关注点。通过建立1997-2011年人民币兑图格里克汇率与蒙中进出口贸易的回归 模型发现：人民币升值对蒙中的进口贸易有显著的削减效应，且“J”曲线效应 显著存在；但是，对出口的促进效应并不明显，也没有找到“J”曲线效应存在 的证据，这主要与蒙中特殊的垂直型商品贸易结构有关。通过对模型结果的分析， 笔者建议蒙古国应加快产业结构升级，推动与中国贸易形式的多样化发展，根据 中国市场需求打造畜牧产品品牌。 关键词：汇率；蒙中贸易；商品结构；“J”曲线效应 I Abstract In recent years, Mongolia kept pushing its economic reforms, strengthening cooperation and communication with other countries around the world, finally joined the WTO in January 1997, which stimulated a rapid growth of Mongolias foreign trade. As a neighbour and the biggest trade partner of Mongolia, China plays a key role in bilateral trade with Mongolia. The RMB exchange rate experienced the greatest and longest appreciation due to the exchange rate reform in 2005, as a result, the exchange rate of RMB against Tugrik rose sharply as well. This research aims to discuss the impact of the fluctuation of RMB exchange rate on the trade flows between Mongolia and China. Through establishing a regression model including the exchange rate of RMB against Tugrik and the data of bilateral trade with Mongolia, we find that the appreciation of RMB appeals to have a significant negative effect on the Mongolia’s imports, and J curve effect does exist. However, we prove that a weak positive effect of appreciation of RMB on the export from Mongolia to China, but cannot prove the existence of J curve effect. This is mainly related to the special vertical structure of Mongolia-China