湖南地区产业结构调整与经济增长的实证研究.pdfVIP

摘 要 改革开放以来，我国的产业结构依据市场的变动不断的进行调整，经济发展也取得了 长足的进步。产业结构变动与经济增长相互依赖、相互促进，产业结构合理且能及时转换， 就能促进经济增长，反之则阻碍经济的增长。本文借助于国内外学者的研究成果，以湖南 省为例，运用实证分析研究方法对产业结构调整与区域经济增长的互动关系进行分析。首 先运用描述统计对湖南地区产业结构调整与优化进行多角度多层次的系统分析，在分析湖 南产业结构调整与经济发展互动轨迹的基础上，揭示湖南产业结构调整的规律。继而运用 计量经济学中的格兰杰因果关系检验、协整理论、脉冲分析等方法对湖南地区产业结构调 整和经济增长关系进行定量研究，以及运用贡献率分析、要素效率和生产规模分析等方法， 从实证角度说明湖南产业结构与经济增长的互动关系。最后，依据研究的结论给出区域产 业结构优化调整的政策建议。 关键词：区域产业结构调整 经济增长 计量分析 I Abstract Since the reform and opening up, according to changing market, our country`s industrial structure has constantly adjusted, and the development of economic has made great progress. Industrial structure adjustment and economic growth are positive interdepende nce. Whether the adjustment of industrial structure is reasonable and timely can affect the economic growth. By means of domestic and foreign scholars research achievements, the paper will take Hunan province as example, mainly apply empirical analysis met hods to analyze the interactive relationship between industrial structure adjustment and regional economic growth. Firstly, the paper uses the descriptive statistic method to multi-angle and multi- level research the regional industrial structure adjustment of Hunan, and based on the analysis of interaction between Hunan province`s industrial structure adjustment and economic growth, indicating the rule of industrial structure adjustment of Hunan province. Secondly, the paper uses the Granger causality test, Cointegration theory, Generalized impulse response function and other methods to quantitative research the relationship between industrial structure adjustment and regional economic growth of Hunan province. Then, from the perspective