中国的出口将受单边人民币升值以及周边国家联合升值的影响外文翻译.docVIP

外文翻译 原文 How Would China’s Exports be Affected by a Unilateral Appreciation of the RMB and by a Joint Appreciation of Countries Supplying Intermediate Imports? Material Source: Springer Link Author: Mizanur Rahman Abstract: In 2005 55% of China’s exports were “processed exports” produced using intermediate goods that came from other countries. The lion’s share of the volume of imports for processing and of the value-added of processed exports came from other East Asian countries. We investigate how a unilateral appreciation of the RMB and a joint appreciation of countries supplying intermediate inputs would affect China’s exports. To do this we estimate a panel data model including ordinary and processed exports from China to 33 countries. Results obtained using generalized method of moments techniques indicate that a joint appreciation would significantly reduce China’s processed exports while a unilateral appreciation would not. Keywords: Global imbalances; exchange rate elasticities; China JEL classification: F32, F41 Acknowledgements: We thank Menzie Chinn, Yujiro Hayami, Kaliappa Kalirajan,Akira Kawamoto, Hisaki Kono, Kozo Oikawa, Keijiro Otsuka, Yasuyuki Sawada, Ichiro,Takahara, Ryuhei Wakasugi, Masaru Yoshitomi, and seminar participants at GRIPSFASID and RIETI for extremely valuable comments. I. Introduction China’s export growth and penetration has been remarkable. While China was basically a closed economy 30 years ago, it is now the leading exporter to Japan, the second leading exporter to Europe, and the third leading exporter to the U.S. China’s explosion in exports has been accompanied by recrimination from trading partners, especially the U.S. The U.S. Congress has blamed the enormous bilateral deficit between the U.S. and China on the value of the RMB and has proposed retaliatory action if China does not allow the RMB to appreciate against the dollar. Other countries have also pushed, though less confrontationally, for an appreciation of the RMB.