煤炭日燃时灾变气体动态预测研究.pdfVIP

Abstract inthefirstplace,thecommonmethods,bywhich coal self-ignitioncanbepredictedandforecasted,arediscussed.Atthe sametime,shortcomings,whichexistintheproductionandinthe 一、 realisticapplicationofthemethods,areelaboratedinthispaper. s Throughdeeplystudyingthemechanismofcoalself-ignition,the naturecharacteristicofcoalself-ignitionisanalyzedintermsofthe non-lineartheory.Theoptimizationandapplicationofthemarker ofthemainproducts--catastrophegasesinthecourseofcoal self-ignitionareelaborated.Accordingtothemechanism,thenature ofcoalself-ignition,thebasiccharacteristicofthegraytheoryand theneuralnetworktheory,aswellastheessentialqualityofmarker gas,dynamicpredictionmethodisbroughtup.Whichisperformed graypredictionandtheneuralnetworkpredictioninviewofthe qualityofmarkergas. OnthebasisofactualdataofChailicoalmineinShanDong ZaozhuangMiningIndustryGroupCorporation,theoptimumgas markersofthecoalmineareselected,coalself-ignitionispredicted, moreover,predictionresultsareverifiedusingisotoperadon measure,predictionresultshavebeenidenticaltoverifiedresults. Theeffectissatisfied.Agoodthoughtandmethodisprovidedfor solvingcoalself-ignition. Keywords:Coalself-ignition Grayprediction Non-lineartheory Gasmarker Dynamicprediction Artificialneuralnetwork AlA眨月巨」二气‘学AR成dt学t立韦仑文 第一章 绪 论 煤炭自燃直接损失了大量的煤炭资源，危害着矿山安全生产， 特别是通过大量有害气体的传播直接污染了大气，恶化了区域生 态环境，降低了当地居民的生活环境质量，对区域社会经济发展 和人类的生存和健康也有较大的潜在危险。据初步统计，由于煤 炭 自燃导致的优质煤损失量己达 42亿吨以上，现在仍以每年 吨的速度增加，而受其影响造成的呆滞资源储量每年 超过 2亿吨，由此导致的间接损失，诸如土地资源、自然生态环 境和人文活动受到的影响更是难以估计。煤层自燃涉及到资源、 环境、经济及人口等问题，因此中国政府在 “21世纪议程”中已 将煤层自燃列为重大