中国工业部门低碳转型的路径选择研究.pdfVIP

中国工业部门低碳转型的路径选择研究 1 1 1 1.2 林伟明 ，李阳芳 ，刘燕娜 ，余建辉, （1 福建农林大学，福建福州 350002 ；2 福建教育学院，福建福州 350002 ） 摘要：本文基于 LMDI 模型和 Tapio 脱钩模型，从静态和动态角度，探索中国工业部门碳排 放变化和碳排放强度的关键因子，为中国工业部门低碳转型的路径选择提供实践依据，主要 研究结论为：中国工业部门碳排放的能源结构效应呈微弱的负效应；能源效率效应是工业部 门碳排放增长的主要抑制因素；工业经济增长是工业部门碳排放增长的第一大促进要素；能 耗与 IGDP 脱钩弹性对碳排放与 IGDP 脱钩弹性呈正向影响并起决定性作用。据此提出工业 部门低碳转型的 3 条路径：优化能源消费结构是工业低碳转型的战略方向；提升能源效率是 工业部门低碳转型的战略路径；调整产业结构是工业部门低碳转型的可取之路。 关键词：低碳转型路径；LMDI 模型；Tapio 脱钩模型 中图分类号 F206 文献标识码 A Study on path selection of industrial low-carbon transformation in China Lin wei-ming，Li yang-fang ，Liu yan-na ，Yu jian-hui （Fujian Agriculture and Forestry University, Fuzhou 350002; Fujian Institute of Education, Fuzhou 350002 ） Abstract:Based on the LMDI model and Tapio decoupling model,this paper explores the change of carbon emissions and the key factors of carbon intensity in Chinas industries from the perspective of both static and dynamic,which provides the practice basis for the selection of our low carbon transition path. Its main conclusions are as follows: the carbon energy structure has a weak negetive effect; the effect of energy efficiency is the main constraints of the growth of carbon emission;the increace of industrial economy is the first spurring elements of the growth of carbon emission; the energy consumption and the elasticity of IGDP decoupling elasticity have a positive effect as well as plays decisive role on the carbon emission and IGDP decoupling elasticity.Accordingly，it advances three kinds of path for industrial low-carbon transformation: optimizing energy consumption structure is the strategic direction of industrial low-carbon transition; improving energy efficiency is the strategic path for the industrial low-carbon transition; adj