基于风险评估的静态安全校核系统指标研究初探.pdfVIP

2012 力系统自动化专委会学术交流研讨会论文集 于风险评估的静态安全校核系统指标研究初探 1 1 1 翠 会 朱泽磊 戴赛 （1 中国 力科学研究院 力自动化研究所，北京市 海淀区 100192；2 某 力调度通信中心，某 福州 350003 ） 要：随着电压等级上升和电网结构日趋复杂，国、网、省三级联系紧密，各级调度日 计划编制过程中协调工作量大，复杂程度大为增加，计划编制需耗费大量精力和时间。 为了更精确的掌握电网的未来运行及安全性和稳定性，并清晰掌握电网的薄弱环节，因 此，要求安全校核更加精益化，为发电计划进行优化调整提供依据，优化调整方案。文 本在传 电网调度计划评估的基础上，结合风险评估理论，研究了基于风险评估理论的 校核系统指标，提出了危险点覆盖率及系 的准确率等指标，通过对通过对 计出的越 限及重载风险指标情况，以及相应的系 收敛率和准确率风险信息，对系 的安全稳定 运行提供了有利保证，同时，对校核系 的准确性也是有利的评判。 关键词：安全校核 潮流 风险评估 危险点覆盖率 潮流准确率 Study with risk Assessment on Static Security Checking Indicators YAN Cui-hui,ZHU Ze-lei DAI Sai (Power System Automation Department, China Electric Power Research Institute, Haidian District, Beijing 100192) ABSTRACT: Increasingly complex as the net transfer directly modulated devices increases and the power grid structure, the country, grid and provincial has closely linked, the coordination work in the planning process at all levels of scheduling is heavy, greatly increased the complexity of planning needs to spend a lot of energy and time. In order to grasp the future power grids security and stability accurately in operation, and master the weak links of the grid clearly. It needs security checking on the grid with planning data such as power generation program, bus load forecasting, maintenance plans and contact lines of the grid, make safety analysis on the grid with the setting following 96 points. Using the sensitivity algorithm with reverse and the same mount matching method, it provides a basis for optimal adju sting the power generation program. Then can make the security checking accurately and can optimize