中国菲利普斯曲线的理论分析和实证研究_谢璐.pdfVIP

2004 年8 月 华 东 经 济 管 理 Aug. , 2004 第18 卷第4 期 East China Economic Management Vol. 18, No. 4 谢 璐 ( 安徽财经大学, 安徽 蚌埠 233041) [ ] 菲利普斯曲线是 析失业与通货膨胀变动关系的一个强有力工具, 并可以勾勒出经济运行态势但 是, 由于经济活动影响因素的复杂性及其组合在各国之间的差异, 特别是我国的特殊国情及正处于经济转 轨这 一特殊的发展时期, 传统的菲利普斯曲线及其理论无法直接拟合我国菲利普斯曲线的曲线模型本文 通过引入经济增长率变量, 运用经济增长率失业率和通货膨胀率三者相互连动的关系模型, 结合我国经 济发展的实际, 得出了拟合程度较高的计量模型, 并从我国的经济背景政策含义的角度给出了理论解释, 从而对菲利普斯曲线走势的差异做出更为确切的描述 [ ] 菲利普斯曲线; 失业率; 通货膨胀率; 经济增长率 [ ] F601 [ ] A [ ] 1007 ) 5097 (2004) 04 ) 0037) 05 Theoretic Analysis and Positive Investigation on Philipps Curve in China XIE Lu ( A nh ui Un iv ersity of F inance , B eng bu 233041, China) Abstract: P ilipps curve is a pow erful tool to analysis t e relations ip between unemployment and inflation, t ereby , to outline economy trend. But t e conventional P ilipps curve canpt be taken as t e same wit t e one in C ina because t at t e complicated factors affect e- conomy and t e factors varied betw een different countries, especially because of t e exceptive situation of our country. Economic growt rate variable are introduced in t is t esis. T roug researc ing t e model based on t e interaction of economic growt rate, unemploy- ment rate and inflation rate, t is t esis educed a computation model more coincident w it t e actual economy in C ina, and from t e point of view of economic situation and policy meanings to give t e P ilipps curve a more exact description. Key words: P ilipps curve; unemployment rate; inflation rate; economic growt rate 1958 , , ,