Quantifying predictive uncertainty of streamflow forecasts based on a Bayesian joint probability model》.pdf

Journal of Hydrology 528 (2015) 329–340 Contents lists available at ScienceDirect Journal of Hydrology journal homepage: /locate/jhydrol Quantifying predictive uncertainty of streamflow forecasts based on a Bayesian joint probability model Tongtiegang Zhao a,b,⇑, Q.J. Wang b, James C. Bennett b, David E. Robertson b, Quanxi Shao a, Jianshi Zhao c a CSIRO Digital Productivity Flagship, Private Bag 5, Wembley, WA 6913, Australia b CSIRO Land and Water Flagship, 37 Graham Road, Highett, VIC 3190, Australia c State Key Laboratory of Hydro-Science and Engineering, Department of Hydraulic Engineering, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China a r t i c l e i n f o s u m m a r y Article history: Uncertainty is inherent in streamflow forecasts and is an important determinant of the utility of forecasts Received 4 April 2015 for water resources management. However, predictions by deterministic models provide only single Received in revised form 17 June 2015 values without uncertainty attached. This study presents a method for using a Bayesian joint probability Accepted 18 June 2015 (BJP) model to post-process deterministic streamflow forecasts by quantifying predictive uncertainty. Available online 25 June 2015 The BJP model is comprised of a log–sinh transformation that normalises hydrological data, and a This manuscript was handled by Geoff Syme, Editor-in-Chief bi-variate Gaussian distribution that characterises the dep