动态通胀目标-中国经济学教育科研网.docVIP

动态通胀目标与中国经济波动 简志宏 李霜 华中科技大学经济学院金融系 内容提要，研究了消费需求冲击、生产率冲击、货币供给冲击、通胀目标冲击对波动的影响模型对内生通胀目标，目标对生产率冲击出正响应对消费需求冲击响应稳定的，但对产出和就业的稳定作用并不明显货币供给冲击产出短暂，生产率冲击消费需求冲击对消费货币供应量的影响，对其它变量的影响短暂。关键词 Dynamic Inflation Target and China’s Economic Fluctuation Zhihong Jian and Shuang Li (School of Economics, Huazhong University of Science and Technology) Abstract: This paper constructs a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model to analyze China’s monetary policy in a New Keynesian framework. A dynamic inflation target is introduced to investigate how consumer’s demand shock, productivity shock, money supply shock and inflation target shock influence China’s economic fluctuations. The empirical evidence supports the assumption that China’s monetary policy has a dynamic endogenous inflation target which could stabilize inflation. The inflation target responds positively to the productivity shock and negatively to the consumer’s demand shock. It shows that money supply shock lead to a transitory increase in output, whereas productivity shock permanently raises the level of output. In addition, the consumer’s demand shock has permanent effects on consumption, money supply and inflation but temporary effects on other endogenous variables. Key Words: Dynamic Inflation Target; Economic Fluctuation; Money Supply Rule JEL Classification: E31 , E32 , E52 动态通胀目标与中国经济波动 要，研究了消费需求冲击、生产率冲击、货币供给冲击、通胀目标冲击对波动的影响模型对内生通胀目标，目标对生产率冲击出正响应对消费需求冲击响应稳定的，但对产出和就业的稳定作用并不明显货币供给冲击产出短暂，生产率冲击消费需求冲击对消费货币供应量的影响，对其它变量的影响短暂。 关键词 Dynamic Inflation Target and China’s Economic Fluctuation Abstract: This paper constructs a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model to analyze China’s monetary policy in a New Keynesian framework. A dynamic inflation target is introduced to investigate how consumer’s demand shock, productivity shock, money supply shock and inflation target shock influence China’s economic fluctuations. The empirical evidence supports the assumption that China’s monetary policy has a dynamic e