基于模型和GIS的小麦空间生产力预测研究.pdfVIP

中国农业科学 2009,42(11):3828-3835 Scientia Agricultura Sinica doi: 10.3864/j.issn.0578-1752.2009.11.009 基于模型和GIS的小麦空间生产力预测研究 石晓燕，汤 亮，刘小军，曹卫星，朱 艳 （南京农业大学农学院/江苏省信息农业高技术研究重点实验室，南京 210095 ） 摘要：【目的】准确预测区域小麦生产力，可以为农业生产的定量评价、环境变化影响的评估等提供关键技 术支持。【方法】基于课题组研制的小麦生长模拟模型，探讨生长模型在区域化应用过程中升尺度连接的方法，进 一步将模型与GIS相耦合，建立小麦区域生产力预测模拟模型；并以江苏省2000年小麦产量的区域模拟为例，借 助 GIS 技术完成了气象、土壤特性、管理措施等模型基本输入数据的空间栅格化预处理，通过将研究区域划分为 许多均质栅格，解决了研究区域内环境条件的空间变异，实现了小麦生产力的区域模拟；并将江苏省内的栅格 模拟产量空间变异图和平均模拟结果同实际产量变异和统计产量进行了比较。【结果】模型模拟的产量空间分布 图可以较好的反映江苏省区域内实际小麦产量的变化规律，通过归并得到的江苏省县市平均产量与统计产量的均 方根差为 496.48 kg·hm-2 。【结论】表明基于模型和 GIS 对不同生态条件下的小麦生产力进行模拟，具有较好的可 行性。 关键词：小麦；模拟模型；地理信息系统；生产力 Predicting Spatial Productivity in Wheat Based on Model and GIS SHI Xiao-yan, TANG Liang, LIU Xiao-jun, CAO Wei-xing, ZHU Yan (College of Agronomy, Nanjing Agricultural University/Jiangsu Key Laboratory for Information Agriculture, Nanjing 210095) Abstract: 【Objective 】 The objective of this study was to predict regional wheat productivity, which would lay a foundation for quantitative evaluating agricultural productivity and precision management. 【Method 】 Considering the approaches related to scaling-up the crop model from plot to region level, a regional wheat model was developed by integrating the WheatGrow model with GIS. To address the spatial variability, grid-based data as model input were generated in advance by interpolation and overlaying with the aid of GIS. When all the necessary input data were available, the target region was partitioned into smaller and relatively homogeneous spatial grids, and crop yields were simulated with WheatGrow for each grid cell. The regional wheat productivity of Jiangsu Province in 2000 was simulated. 【Result 】 The distribution of wheat yield that simulated by the regional