汶川地震灾区泥石流群发雨量及预警等级划分.pdfVIP

第37卷摇 第9期 北 京 林 业 大 学 学 报 Vol.37,No.9 2015年9月 JOURNAL OF BEIJING FORESTRY UNIVERSITY Sep. ,2015 鄄鄄 DOI:10.13332/ j.1000 1522.座机电话号码 汶川地震灾区泥石流群发雨量及预警等级划分 1 2 3 马摇 超 摇 何晓燕摇 胡凯衡 1北京林业大学水土保持学院,水土保持与荒漠化防治教育部重点实验室摇 2 中国水利水电科学研究院 3 中国科学院水利部成都山地灾害与环境研究所,山地灾害与地表过程重点实验室 摘要:确定泥石流激发雨量阈值以及建立有效的预警预报等级是泥石流防灾减灾的重要手段之一。 就2008—2013 年汶川灾区群发性、局部地区暴发的泥石流雨量过程进行分析,分别得到北川、清平、都江堰、映秀4个地区泥石流 鄄鄄 暴发的“雨强 历时冶阈值。 其中,都江堰地区阈值较高,映秀最低;北川地区群发性泥石流阈值较局部地区要高,而 其他3个地区不明显,部分地区群发性泥石流I鄄D值还低于局部地区泥石流I鄄D值。 根据群发性和局部区域泥石 鄄鄄 流暴发的雨强 历时、前期降雨+实时降雨关系,初步建立了以上4个地区的预警预报等级,以期能为该区泥石流 预警预报提供参考。 关键词:群发性泥石流;预警预报;汶川地震;雨量阈值 鄄鄄 鄄鄄 鄄鄄 中图分类号:S715郾1摇 摇 文献标志码:A摇 摇 文章编号:1000 1522 2015 09 0037 08 1 2 3 MA Chao ; HE Xiao鄄yan ; HU Kai鄄heng . Preliminary research on the rainfall threshold and warning grades of clustering debris flow in Wenchuan earthquake region,southwestern China. 鄄鄄 Journal of Beijing Forestry University 2015 37 9 37 44 [Ch,39 ref.]. 1Key laboratory of Soil and Water Conservation Desertification Combating of Ministry of Education, School of Soil and Water Conservation,Beijing Forestry University,Beijing,100083,P. R. China; 2 China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research,Beijing,100044,P. R. China; 3 Institute of Mountain Hazards and Environment,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Chengdu,Sichuan, 610041,P. R. China. Establishing precise rainfall threshold and effective forecasting system is one of the important measures to prevent debris flow disasters and reduce damage. We analyzed the rainfalls triggered by debrisflows at clustering and small scales in the Wenchuan earthquake region of southwestern China during the period of2008—2013,aiming to establish the range of rainfall intensity鄄duration threshold in Beichuan,Qingping,Dujiangyan and Yingxiu of Sichuan Province. The rainfall threshold in Dujiangyan was higherwhilethatinYingxiuwaslowerthanintheothertworegions. Thethresholdof criticalrainfalls of clustering debris flows in Beichuan was higher than that of small鄄scale debris flows,but this trend could not